Shantsev's Strategy

Shantsev's Strategy — the common name for the Strategy for the Development of Nizhny Novgorod Region to 2020, adopted by the regional government under Governor Valery Shantsev in 2006, and simultaneously the slogan of a 2007 pre-election advertising campaign: more than a hundred billboards at the approaches to Nizhny Novgorod declared "Putin's Plan — Shantsev's Strategy" ^[1][2][3][6]. The document aimed to make the Region a leader in quality of life by 2020, through the automotive industry, mass consumer goods, and science; by the end of the designated period, according to the regional government's own assessment, neither the target nor the optimistic scenario had been achieved ^[6][9].

Background

In the autumn of 2007, at the height of the State Duma election campaign, Nizhny Novgorod Region was covered with 6×3-metre billboards: the Governor was depicted surrounded now by medical workers, now by teachers, now by pensioners, with charts showing income growth for these categories of citizens displayed alongside ^[1]. The actual text of the strategy did not appear on the billboards — passersby saw only a notice of its existence, and in the city "Shantsev's Strategy" was perceived as an unpublished concept that was assumed to describe the Region's development to 2020 ^[1]. In reality, a formal document lay behind the slogan: the Strategy for the Development of Nizhny Novgorod Region to 2020 had been approved by a government resolution and published in the newspaper Nizhegorodskiye Novosti on 24 June 2006 ^[6].

The billboards were part of a nationwide United Russia campaign. As Moskovsky Komsomolets reported, the President had authorized the "party of power" to use his image ahead of the Duma elections as early as late September 2007 (authorization was given in writing, and sample campaign materials were submitted to the Presidential Administration). Residents of Krasnodar Krai saw posters reading "Putin's Plan — Tkachev's Plan," while in Nizhny Novgorod they read "Putin's Plan — Shantsev's Strategy"; the newspaper concluded that across the regions the posters would follow the same pattern: first "Putin's Plan," then the regional leader's "take" on it ^[2].

Governor Valery Shantsev and Nizhny Novgorod Mayor Vadim Bulavinov were the leading names on the Nizhny Novgorod United Russia list in that election ^[1]. One of the campaign posters depicted the Governor, the Mayor of the regional capital, and the Speaker of the Regional Legislative Assembly together.

I see no obstacles whatsoever. Candidates have the right to use the image of any person who has officially granted them permission to do so

Organization of the advertising project

The contractor for the campaign, by its own account, was Kstovo-based political consultant Roman Ambartsumyan, a member of the regional political council of MGER and a consultant for the Magazin Reklamy group of companies. In that group's presentation, the project "Putin's Plan in Shantsev's Strategy" was listed with a note about full informational and advertising-and-agitation support and 130 billboard panels deployed — alongside the "Mayor of Nizhny Novgorod Cup," "City Brand. New Nizhny," the "Young Entrepreneur" competition, the "Arena" project, and the "Evening of Remembrance for Those Fallen in the Afghan and Chechen Wars" ^[3]. The question of who had prepared the party advertising and with whose money resurfaced later — in the affair of "Ambartsumyan's Résumé" in 2009.

Project organization: "Mayor of Nizhny Novgorod Cup," "City Brand. New Nizhny," "Young Entrepreneur" competition, "Arena," "Putin's Plan in Shantsev's Strategy" (full informational and advertising-and-agitation support, 130 billboards deployed), "Evening of Remembrance for Those Fallen in the Afghan and Chechen Wars"

Document: Strategy for the Development of Nizhny Novgorod Region to 2020

The regional government decided to develop a long-term strategy at its session on 25 October 2005, just over two months after Vladimir Putin on 8 August 2005 nominated Valery Shantsev for the post of Governor ^[6][8]. The initiative came from the Governor himself; more than 500 regional and industry experts were brought in, 26 working groups were formed comprising industry specialists, heads of major enterprises, officials, and consultants, and Strategika LLC became the strategic consultant ^[6][7]. Twenty-five key economic sectors were studied in detail ^[6][7].

On 21 March 2006, the strategy was approved at a session of the Regional Government chaired by the Governor; it was formally adopted by Resolution No. 127 of the Government of Nizhny Novgorod Region dated 17 April 2006, which superseded the previous Strategic Development Plan for the Region through 2015 (2005) ^[5][6]. According to Shantsev, the strategy had already received the endorsement of Russia's Minister of Economic Development and Trade, German Gref ^[5]. Amendments to the document were introduced by resolutions dated 20 March 2009, No. 130, and 6 October 2016, No. 681 ^[6].

The strategy defined the Regional Government's priority actions under conditions of limited budgetary resources. Planning proceeded in three stages: strategic analysis, a long-term strategy through 2020, and a medium-term (five-year) government action plan for its implementation ^[5][6]. Shantsev emphasized that, unlike other regions, the Region possesses no mineral deposits that could serve as the foundation for prosperity ^[5].

During the analysis stage, the Region's competitiveness was assessed relative to other regions — in terms of economic efficiency, infrastructure development and accessibility, quality of human capital, and conditions for living and doing business; the tax base and consolidated budget expenditures were analyzed, and the principal strengths and challenges were identified ^[5][6]. The baseline picture was modest: by per capita income the Region ranked 32nd in the country (2004), by per capita GRP it ranked 28th (2003), and labor productivity in the core sectors stood at approximately 6% of the U.S. level ^[6]. A key advantage was geographic position: within a 500 km radius of Nizhny Novgorod lived approximately 43 million people, and within a 1,000 km radius, approximately 84 million ^[6].

Taking into account the heterogeneity of the territory, the Region was divided into four zones grouping its districts: a timber-industrial zone, an industrial and scientific-educational zone, an innovation zone (Diveevskiy, Arzamassky, and Pervomayskiy Districts), and an agro-industrial zone; sectoral priorities were refined to reflect the characteristics of each ^[5][6]. The priorities themselves were selected according to two groups of criteria: the attractiveness of the sector in terms of its contribution to the Region's economy, and the existence within the Region of preconditions for its successful development ^[5][6].

All we can count on together is our unique geographical position and our human resources: the talented, skilled, enterprising, and well-educated residents of the Region. Today the Government is forced to operate under conditions of limited capabilities and resources — hence the need to establish priorities and focus only on what matters most

"Main Axes of Advance" and Objectives

Taking into account the Region's sectoral priorities, advantages, and challenges, the strategy identified three "main lines of attack" for the government ^[5][6]:

• securing leadership in automotive manufacturing — relying on GAZ, PAZ, and ZMZ, the willingness of Ruspromavto shareholders to invest in modernization, and the arrival of assembly operations by international automotive conglomerates ^[6];
• establishing Russia's largest production and distribution hub for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) — cited as examples were the Coca-Cola, Gallina Blanca, Heineken, and Wella plants already operating in the Region ^[5][6];
• realizing the potential of the scientific and educational complex and of innovation ^[5][6].

A vision of the Region in 2020

On the basis of this analysis, an economic model of the Region was constructed; key indicators through 2020 — including household incomes — were forecast under various scenarios; requirements for transport and energy infrastructure and for the composition of the labor force were formulated; and directions were set for developing human capital, living conditions, and effective executive governance ^[5][6]. The primary goal was stated to be improving the welfare and quality of life of the population, achievable through an efficient and balanced economy, favorable living conditions, and effective executive governance ^[6][7].

The 2020 vision was ambitious: the Region would become the business and political capital of the Volga Region, labor productivity would rise to 35% of the U.S. level, real disposable incomes would reach around 20,000 rubles per month (in 2004 prices), GRP per capita would approach $10,000 — comparable to Hungary and the Czech Republic in 2004 — and the Region's share of the Russian automobile market would be no less than 25% ^[6]. Under the most probable scenario, average per-capita incomes were to grow from 5,600 rubles ($195) in 2005 to 18,500 rubles ($650) in 2020, average wages in the core sectors were to nearly quintuple from 6,800 to 26,800 rubles, and total economic output was to reach 2 trillion rubles, growing at 6.1% per year ^[6].

As summarized by the Nizhny Novgorod press in 2008, the strategy came down to a few figures: economic growth of 7–8% per year, investment at 25% of GRP, and real income growth of 9–10% per year ^[8]. At the district level, the strategy was to be implemented through productive-forces development programs for municipal districts and urban districts, with target benchmarks for 2020; at the sectoral level, through regional state programs ^[7].

Now we must do the most important thing — turn plans into reality. What we have adopted is not an abstract document but the foundation of our work for years to come. A great deal of complex and painstaking effort lies ahead. In that effort I am counting very much on the support of all those who care about the future of Nizhny Novgorod Region. Because the ultimate goal of the Strategy is to improve the well-being of all Nizhny Novgorod residents.

Reactions and criticism

The 2007 advertising campaign drew a wave of irony. In a roundup of critical responses on the site luzhmafia.boom.ru, the loudest joke was aimed at the slogan itself: billboards showing "Shantsev with children, Shantsev with elderly women, Shantsev with young people" prompted observers to note that Putin had "merely plans," while Shantsev had a strategy ^[4]. The same roundup catalogued grievances against the first years of his governorship ^[4]:

• according to the authors, one in three residents of Nizhny Novgorod lived below the poverty line, and in rural areas the share of those in need was even greater ^[4];
• snow-clearing equipment was purchased secondhand through Moscow intermediaries rather than directly from Germany; a Moscow holding company's support operations in Arzamas were criticized for paying workers low wages ^[4];
• federal television channels aired reports on rising bread prices, and the presidential envoy's office in the Volga Federal District, according to the authors, blamed the regional executive authorities for the state of the oblast's agriculture and compared it unfavorably with Kirov Oblast; restrictions on milk exports were also discussed ^[4];
• the governor's weekend tour of markets in Leninsky and Prioksky Districts was likened to "Potemkin villages" — the markets were said to have opened for just one day ^[4];
• announcements about searching for oil in the oblast were called unoriginal: his predecessor had searched for it too ^[4];
• the governor was criticized for hastily organizing a children's festival at the very site where participants in a protest rally were gathering ^[4];
• the suspension of the Nizhny Novgorod insert in the federal newspaper Trud-7 was linked by the authors of the compilation to criticism of the governor ^[4].

Presentations and reputation

A promotional and presentation program dedicated personally to the governor aired on major national television channels and was broadcast to Europe via satellite; experts quoted in the same compilation saw this as a sign of Shantsev's serious career ambitions and a signal that "the governor is closely engaged in some important work" ^[4]. A video presentation addressed to foreign investors has also survived.

The tone was quite different in the loyalist press: in August 2008, on the third anniversary of his governorship, the banking portal banknn.ru wrote of Shantsev as one of the country's finest administrators and cited a survey by the Institute for Comparative Social Research in which 67% of residents noted positive trends in the region's development ^[8].

Implementation Outcomes

Shantsev resigned on September 26, 2017, citing the president's decision as motivated primarily by age; Gleb Nikitin was appointed acting governor ^[10]. Under him, a new Strategy for the Socio-Economic Development of Nizhny Novgorod Region through 2035 was prepared (Decree No. 889 of December 21, 2018), in which the regional government assessed the outcomes of the previous document ^[9]. The 2006 decree was invalidated by Decree No. 132 of February 18, 2020 ^[6].

Among the achievements, the new strategy cites the Southern Bypass of Nizhny Novgorod (Phases I–III), the new Volga bridge, the metro bridge across the Oka, and two metro stations — Gorkovskaya and Strelka. Since 2014, according to its data, the income gap relative to the national average has been eliminated (in 2005 it stood at 25%), poverty fell from 17.5% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2017, a network of 35 sports and fitness complexes was built across the districts, the waiting list for nurseries for children aged 3–7 disappeared by late 2015, and the volume of residential construction over 2005–2017 grew by a factor of 1.7 ^[9]. Over 2006–2017, around 150 cultural facilities were built, reconstructed, or restored, among them the Planetarium, the circus, the Rukavishnikov Estate, and the Zachatyevskaya Tower of the Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin ^[9].

At the same time, as the document acknowledges, neither the optimistic nor the most likely (target) scenario was achieved. Over 12 years, the region's GRP grew by 34.4% against 30.3% for Russia as a whole, but after the 2008–2009 crisis and the events of 2014 (the drop in energy prices, sanctions, and stagnation), the region developed along the pessimistic scenario; investment in fixed capital averaged nearly 28% of GRP but had fallen to 19% by 2017 against a target of 20–25%, while incomes and wages remained at the lower bound of the pessimistic variant ^[9].

This scenario was not provided for in Strategy-2020, and no adjustment of the document in accordance with the changed conditions was carried out.

Chronology

See also

• Plan Putina
• Valery Shantsev
• Anglichaninov Valeriy Veniaminovich
• Ambartsumyan Roman
• Shantsev's Blog
• Shantsev's Week of Achievements
• Kstovo

Sources

1. ng.ru — Nezavisimaya Gazeta, NG-Regiony — Svetlana Gamzayeva on Nizhny Novgorod pre-election lists and billboards, October 1, 2007 — Strategist Shantsev and Putin's Plan (archive)
2. mk.ru — Moskovsky Komsomolets — on governors granted the right to use the president's image, October 22, 2007 — Take a Little Putin for Yourself
3. magrek.ru — Magazin Reklamy Group of Companies — project presentation (PowerPoint) — "Magazin Reklamy" Presentation
4. luzhmafia.boom.ru — a collection of critical reviews of Governor Shantsev, 2007–2008
5. government.nnov.ru — Government of Nizhny Novgorod Region — press service announcement, March 21, 2006 — Regional Government Adopted the Strategy for the Development of Nizhny Novgorod Region to 2020
6. base.garant.ru — GARANT — Decree of the Government of Nizhny Novgorod Region dated April 17, 2006, No. 127, containing the text of the strategy and its amendments (archive)
7. sosnovskoe.info — Administration of Sosnovsky District — background note on the development and implementation mechanisms of the strategy — Strategy for the Development of Nizhny Novgorod Region to 2020
8. BankNN — Banks of Nizhny Novgorod — on the third anniversary of the governorship, August 12, 2008 — Results of Nizhny Novgorod Region's Work under V.P. Shantsev
9. nn-invest.ru — Investment Portal of Nizhny Novgorod Region — Strategy to 2035 (Decree of December 21, 2018, No. 889), Section 1.3 "Results of the Implementation of Strategy-2020" (archive)
10. Kommersant (Volga Region) — on the resignation of Valery Shantsev, September 27, 2017 — Nizhny Novgorod Changes Its Top Official (archive)