The total fertility rate (TFR) of Nizhny Novgorod Region is a demographic indicator reflecting the average number of children born to one woman over her entire reproductive period (ages 15 to 50). According to the definition used by Rosstat, the indicator does not depend on the age composition of the population and characterizes the average birth rate in a given calendar period.[1] For a long time, the region's TFR lagged behind the Russian national average, but since mid-2025 the region has recorded a steady positive trend.

Trend of the indicator

In January 2025, the TFR stood at 1.275; by December 2025 it had risen to 1.307.[6] Over 2025 as a whole, the indicator rose from 1.275 to 1.307.[1] In January 2026, the TFR reached 1.309, exceeding for the first time in the entire history of observations the average for the Volga Federal District (1.302).[1][6] According to regional authorities' estimates, actual figures at that point were ahead of Rosstat's demographic forecasts by more than 4%.[6]

As of June 2026, the TFR in Nizhny Novgorod Region exceeded the Russian national figure for the first time since 1990: the regional value was 1.357, against 1.352 for the country and 1.295 for the Volga Federal District.[4][5] Since the launch of the OSNOVA program in June 2025 (TFR of 1.260), the increase by June 2026 amounted to 0.097 points, or 7.7% — the best result among all regions of the country over this period, according to the autonomous nonprofit organization "Institute of Demographic Development."[5] The TFR for third and subsequent children in June 2026 was 0.296, compared to 0.257 a year earlier (an increase of 12.2%), which was also the best figure among Russian regions.[5]

In August 2026, the total fertility rate (TFR) reached 1.365 — higher than the national average (1.336) and the Volga Federal District average (1.287).[3] According to the Institute for Demographic Development, whose data was cited in September 2026, this figure was the highest among all Russian regions, and the Region exceeded the national average for the third consecutive month.[2][3] Since the launch of the "OSNOVA" program in July 2025, the regional TFR has risen overall by 8.3%; among large families, the increase was 16.7%.[3]

Family Support Measures

Governor Gleb Nikitin and the regional government attribute the positive trend to the implementation of the comprehensive program "OSNOVA — Nizhny Novgorod Project for Life," launched in July 2025 as part of the Five-Year Period of the Family (2025–2030) declared in the Region.[5] The program provides payments to families upon the birth or adoption of children totaling up to 1 million rubles, including federal maternity capital and the regional "Osnova" parental income; the funds can be received as a monthly payment, a lump sum, or a combination of the two.[6] In addition, the "Gift for a Newborn" program is in effect — an electronic certificate worth 20,000 rubles for purchasing children's goods from local producers.[5][6] Under the "Emergency Demographic Aid" project, expectant parents are offered free consultations with psychologists, lawyers, and social work specialists.[6] The Institute of Demographic Development also offers digital services: the "Social Support Measures Calculator," the "Life Situations" section, and the "Wow, Parents!" mini-app.[5]

Sources

  1. Kommersant (Volga Region) — The total fertility rate in Nizhny Novgorod Region has exceeded the Volga Federal District average for the first time in its history (archive)
  2. GTRK "Nizhny Novgorod" (Vesti) — The total fertility rate in Nizhny Novgorod Region has exceeded the national average for three months in a row
  3. Vremya N — The total fertility rate in Nizhny Novgorod Region exceeds national figures (archive)
  4. Vedomosti — For the first time in 36 years, Nizhny Novgorod Region has surpassed Russia's birth rate
  5. Nizhegorodskaya Pravda — Birth rate in Nizhny Novgorod Region has been above the Russian average since 1990 (archive)
  6. Newsroom24 — Nizhny Novgorod Region outpaces the Volga Federal District in birth rate for the first time — Society
Materials from the following articles were used (1)

Nizhny Novgorod's Advance to the Finals of the "Family Capital of Russia" Competition (2026)